The Old Four-Year Cycle Already Broke

I flew 20 hours from France to Hong Kong for Bitcoin Asia, and before I even landed, friends were already messaging me about the market. The excitement is real, but so is a quiet anxiety underneath.

Historically, the drop from a bull peak to a bear bottom took roughly a year. In previous cycles, that was 59 weeks after 2013, 52 weeks after 2017, and 54 weeks after 2021. If that pattern held, after Bitcoin's October 2025 high of $126,000, the real bottom would land around late 2026. August and September used to be slow, boring accumulation months in that script.

But Trump changed the script. US government policy actively interrupted Bitcoin's original rhythm. Market sentiment flipped, and now many people say the bottom is already in and the hardest part is over. The hard question is no longer the chart itself. It is guessing what Trump will say or do next.

Spot ETFs Flattened the Cycle

There is another force reshaping Bitcoin: spot ETFs. They brought traditional finance money into crypto. That money has a long horizon, low leverage, and slow decision-making. It replaced part of the high-leverage, crypto-native trading that used to create violent tops and bottoms.

The result is a flatter cycle. The top is less insane, and the bottom is less brutal. That is the new feature of the ETF era.

Bitcoin's annual return is often concentrated in about ten days. Most of the time it chops, ranges, or even dumps. Look at this week: after ranging between roughly 62K and 66K for more than a month, Bitcoin shot to nearly 80K in three days. If you were sitting on the sidelines, you missed it.

Nobody can predict those few days, not even people who have studied Bitcoin for a decade or experts in finance. Unless you are Trump's bodyguard and know when he will post. That is why I keep telling people: do not try to time the exact day. Stay invested for the long term.

CZ and Justin Sun: What the Big Names Actually Said

I walked the floor and spoke to attendees. One person explained that the best way to introduce Bitcoin is to show what it can do, not to lecture. He told me his sisters and friends now put 5 to 10 percent of their investment scheme into Bitcoin every month. Some of his friends even used Bitcoin and Ethereum to buy cars and real estate. If he could go back in time five or ten years, he said he would load up on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple.

CZ made a strong statement. He said Bitcoin's million-dollar price will come faster than people think, not in 100 years. He repeated that Bitcoin is a better asset than gold, and all major countries will eventually hold it as a reserve. This time, when he said it, nobody laughed. On the next big narrative after NFTs, DeFi, and ICOs, CZ said he cannot predict it. Maybe we will get a surprise.

Justin Sun focused on quantum computing and decentralization. He thinks a quantum threat could materialize within two years, maybe with a 30 percent chance as soon as next year. But he is not worried: sovereignty funds and ETFs are not sitting still, and cryptography has historically advanced faster than attempts to break it. On decentralization, he made a sharp point. Governments will not put large amounts of money on chains that are not decentralized enough. For state-level security, decentralization is a requirement. He also said the four-year cycle is weaker now because Bitcoin increasingly behaves like gold, a reserve asset, not a payment tool.

Asia Is No Longer the Side Show

The conference organizers scheduled several Asia-focused sessions: Hong Kong as a Bitcoin hub, building Hong Kong into a Bitcoin city, and whether Asian investors are more risk-loving than Westerners. The signal is clear. The world is looking at Asia.

As a Frenchman who has lived in East Asia for many years and makes content in Chinese, I see two different money logics. Europe consumes ahead, uses credit cards, and takes loans. Asia saves, finds security in bank balances, and buys property with multi-decade mortgages whose total interest can exceed the original price. I am not comparing which is smarter. These are different histories and social environments.

This is why I think many Asians are well suited to hold a small amount of Bitcoin. The reason is a strong preference for security rather than a love of risk. Bitcoin's supply is fixed. Nobody can dilute it. It does not depend on house prices or exchange rates. A small allocation can protect purchasing power over the long term.

Hong Kong is moving in that direction. After stablecoin regulation moved forward, there are already more than 40 applicants. Asia's savings rate is high, but much of that money sits in low-yield channels while inflation erodes purchasing power. I am not telling anyone to go all in. I never do. Bitcoin can be a small part of an asset allocation, a hedge against local currency debasement.

What I Will Watch Before Calling a Bull Market

At the conference, I met many people shouting about a bull market. I am not a contrarian. I hold ETH and Bitcoin, and I would be happy to see them rally. But you know me, I prefer to be careful.

Instead of watching only price, I want to see two on-chain signals. First, whether stablecoins start rotating back into Bitcoin in volume. Second, whether long-term holders accelerate their accumulation. If those two signals appear, then new money is truly entering, and a bull case becomes stronger.

Until then, my attitude stays the same. Do not chase highs, especially when sentiment is hottest. You cannot predict the key days, so keep your position, stay invested, and keep a steady rhythm. If your rhythm is intact, your mindset will be too.

Discipline Over Prediction in the Second Half

The old cycle gave us a rough map, but politics and ETFs have rewritten it. The market is more narrative-driven and less violent than before. That makes timing harder and patience more valuable.

What I took away from Bitcoin Asia is that serious players are thinking in terms of reserve assets, state adoption, and long-term security, not just the next trade. Asia is taking a bigger role, and its savings culture may make Bitcoin more natural here than many people assume.

For the second half, I am not trying to call the exact bottom. I am watching stablecoin rotation and long-term holder behavior. If those confirm, I will get more constructive. Until then, I stay in the market, avoid chasing euphoria, and let time do the heavy lifting.