Are You Fit to Own Bitcoin?

Why I'm Still Long-Term Bullish—and Why That's Not Enough

My stance hasn't changed: over the long term, I'm really bullish on Bitcoin. It remains the cornerstone of my asset allocation. But here's the nuance most people miss—just because an asset can go much higher doesn't mean everyone should own it.

Bitcoin is like a wild horse. It isn't a car. It's untamed, full of power. An experienced rider can harness it and move faster than anyone else. But if a novice jumps on, the first bump will throw them off, and that will hurt a lot. Timing a wild horse is cool, but the most important thing is to ensure your own safety first.

That's why, when people ask me whether they can still buy Bitcoin now, I don't give them a number. I ask them three questions. By the end, they—and you—will know deep down whether you're really meant to hold Bitcoin or not.

Question 1: Is Your Money Capital or Cash?

This is the most important and most easily confused concept in the investment world. Cash is meant for survival. Your next month's rent, daily meals, your kids' tuition—these are all cash. Its primary duty is stability and availability at any time. It has clear, short-term tasks.

Capital, on the other hand, is for growth. Its only task is to become more through the compound interest of time. It has no short-term KPIs. It pursues a grand blueprint over five or ten years. Capital can and must withstand huge fluctuations.

Most tragedy comes from people using the mindset of managing cash to control money that should be capital. You invest money into Bitcoin, but in your mind, you set short-term KPIs for it—like it needs to rise 20% next month to pay off credit cards, or double next year to cover a house down payment. The moment you do that, your capital is hijacked by short-term cash-flow needs. You're no longer an investor; you've become an anxious gambler. And any normal market pullback will be fatal to you.

• Cash: stability, short-term obligations, must stay liquid.
• Capital: growth, 5–10 year horizon, can withstand huge volatility.
• Mixing them turns you into a gambler, not an investor.

Question 2: Is Time Your Friend or Your Enemy?

There's a saying on Wall Street: in the market, those who make big money don't rely on brains but on their butts. It means it's about who can sit tight. Behind this is a cruel truth—the asymmetry of time.

Let's do a thought experiment. Suppose you bought Bitcoin in November 2021 at its all-time high of 69K. Then the market crashed, and for nearly three years your account was in floating loss. At one point, the loss exceeded 70%. How would you feel? Would you be able to sleep at night?

For a true capitalist, time is a friend, even a weapon. Those three years of bear market aren't a crisis; they're a discount season—an opportunity to dollar-cost average, to collect cheap coins. His cash flow and capital are completely isolated, so he has infinite patience, waiting for the market to go from winter to spring.

But for someone living paycheck to paycheck with tight cash flow, time is the enemy. Every month, bill day approaches. Every market drop increases your survival pressure. You might have top-tier knowledge. You might be bullish on Bitcoin, convinced it will go to 1 million. But real-life pressure means you can't even pay next month's rent. At that point, your knowledge is worthless.

I remember a real story from a Tesla shareholder on X. He was a longtime retail investor, extremely convicted about Tesla. But not long ago, he posted that he had to sell 10% of his Tesla position. Why? To pay rent and living expenses. He believed Tesla might go back to 400, or even break a thousand someday. But he couldn't wait. He didn't have the luxury to wait. He had to sell his precious stock to those who can treat time as a friend. That's the market truth—cruel, but real.

• If you can survive a multi-year drawdown without selling, time is your friend.
• If monthly bills force you to sell, time is your enemy—no matter how bullish you are.

Question 3: Where Is Bitcoin in Your Asset Pyramid?

A mature investment portfolio should look like a pyramid. The base is your survival foundation. For example, emergency reserves for 6 to 12 months of living expenses—like an insurance policy. This ensures that even if you lose your job or get sick, you won't collapse. This layer must be cash. It must be liquid and absolutely stable.

The middle of the pyramid is your core assets. For example, S&P 500 index funds, stablecoin holdings like USDT, things like that. They grow steadily with relatively small fluctuations. This is the cornerstone of your wealth, letting your assets outpace inflation.

The top of the pyramid is your offensive troops. This is where ultra-high returns come from. All cryptos, starting with Bitcoin, early tech stocks, venture capital—they belong here. High risk, high volatility, high potential returns. The purpose of this part is to let your wealth achieve a leap to the next class.

But pause and look at your own pyramid. Many people's pyramids are upside down. The foundation isn't even there, and they're already throwing all their money—sometimes even borrowed money—right on top of the pyramid. It looks exciting, but then the market sends a gust of wind, and boom, you're done. You don't have anything anymore. You must have the shield at the bottom before you can safely wield the spear at the top.

• Base: 6–12 months of liquid, stable emergency reserves.
• Middle: core assets like index funds and stablecoin positions.
• Top: high-risk assets like Bitcoin—offensive, not foundational.

So, Are You Fit to Own Bitcoin?

Let's summarize today's three questions. First, distinguish your capital from your cash. Don't use survival logic to command money meant for growth. Second, recognize whether time is your friend or your enemy. If your life can't withstand the test of time, high-volatility assets are a trap. Third, clarify Bitcoin's position in your asset pyramid. What is the spear at the top and the shield at the bottom? You must have the shield first.

I know this is more complex than simply telling you to buy or not buy. But I believe those who understand what I'm saying here will definitely gain from it. Take this as my personal framework, not investment advice. You are 100% responsible for your own decisions.