2024: A Year of Storms and First Harvests

2024 was a wild ride. Trump turned crypto into a circus, and Bitcoin finally kissed $100,000. Before we ask whether it can double again, we need to look at the dirt.

The seeds were sown on January 11, 2024, when the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. After months of rumors driving prices up, the news triggered a classic sell-the-news event. Bitcoin dropped about 15% in 24 hours, from $48,000 to $39,000. Glassnode reported over one billion dollars in leveraged positions liquidated. The lesson: markets overreact to big news, then correct.

By March 14, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $73,000. ETFs had settled in, miners were cutting sales, and institutions were piling in. Goldman Sachs reported over $400 million in Bitcoin ETF positions, with a big chunk in BlackRock's IBIT. Morgan Stanley expanded its Bitcoin ETF holdings to roughly $189 million. Demand outstripped supply.

Then came the summer supply scares. Mt. Gox distributions and German government selling created fear of a flood. Between June and July, the market absorbed it. About 70% of recipients held, and by October things stabilized. That quiet period was a perfect time to dollar cost average.

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News: The Pattern Repeats

The ETF approval and Trump's reserve announcement both followed the same pattern. Prices spike on hype, then correct. After the reserve narrative, Bitcoin climbed to $109,000, then dropped to $86,000. This pattern shows that big news plants seeds, but the real growth comes later, often a few months later.

Liquidity is the key. In 2020, a three trillion dollar QE program pumped Bitcoin from $10,000 to $79,000 in a year. Today, the Fed is still running QT, draining liquidity. We are thirsty for rain. That rain could come if policy shifts.

Trump's Wild Card: Promises and Tariffs

November 5th was a great day. Trump won the presidency and Bitcoin jumped from $69,000 to $75,000 overnight, nearly 15% in 24 hours. He had been hyping a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, with talk of 200,000 Bitcoin by Q1 2025. The market went nuts, flirting with $100,000.

But Trump is a wild card. His 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium, effective March 2025, and 20% on Chinese goods stirred a dust storm. Inflation data showed 2.8% CPI in February, but Goldman Sachs predicts a 0.5% bump by Q3 2025 if tariffs kick in. Risk appetite wobbled, and Bitcoin felt it.

Trump is bullish on crypto, but his trade war could shock growth. He may be a savior or a fox in the hen house. I lean fox. His hype and crash cycles are exhausting. We had high hopes, maybe too high, and we deserved this correction.

December 5th, Bitcoin cracked $100,000 for the first time. The reserve plan locked in, and an SEC pick who is pro crypto sealed it. Daily volume hit insane levels at $109,000, then profit taking dragged it back.

Why a Dip to $55K Could Come First

The bear case is real. Liquidity is scarce. The Fed's QT drained $95 billion monthly in 2024. Tariffs could push inflation to 3.5%, choking growth without new QE. If markets overheat at $100,000, a crash looms. We saw those black Friday crashes in 2024 with hundreds of millions in liquidations, sometimes a billion or more. A dip to $55,000 could liquidate another wave of leveraged positions, shaking out weak hands.

Wall Street might actually want that. They are now big players. Cheap coins before a big harvest would suit them. I would welcome it too: a $55,000 reset would clean the field for a bigger run later, maybe $500,000 by 2027. Short-term noise fools the herd; I am farming long term.

I also saw a tweet from DeFi Daniel that I loved. He said that Wall Street will not let Michael Saylor become the richest man in the world on their dime. I think he is right. A forced liquidation of Saylor's position would be great for Wall Street and healthy for the market.

The Bull Case for $200K in 2025

On the other hand, Bitcoin could soar if liquidity flows in. The Fed is holding rates at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, with inflation at 2.8. If Trump's tariffs spark stagflation, the Fed might flip to QE. A one trillion dollar injection could mirror 2020 and lift Bitcoin from $86,000 to $200,000 by December 2025. A tariff truce would help too, though Trump is unpredictable.

Supply is tight. Miners are holding, and MicroStrategy's holdings are at all time highs and they still want to buy. If other nations join the reserve race, $200,000 is in sight. Coinbase's Armstrong tweeted about countries moving in. El Salvador keeps buying. If China joins, that would be huge. After the ETF we saw a big run from about $58,000 to $73,000. After the reserve, we could see $86,000 to $200,000. That is not crazy.

My Framework: Seeds, Weather, Soil, Rain, Patience

I do not rely on hope. I have a framework rooted in lessons from eight years in crypto.

Spot the seeds: watch catalysts like ETFs, policy shifts, and liquidity changes. They are the seeds of big moves.

Feel the weather: sentiment drives short-term swings. Fear crashes, black swan events, and Trump wins all move the market daily.

Check the soil: macro risk matters. Tariffs, Fed moves, unemployment. If the soil is rocky, hold tight.

Pray for rain: liquidity makes the weather. QT dries us out, QE makes us bloom. Watch central banks closely. We love a decentralized world, but we are still dependent on centralized decisions.

Harvest with patience: you cannot rush a harvest. I am farming for 20 years, not one season. When you pray for rain, you still have to wait for it.

The Harvest Plan

So, can Bitcoin hit $200,000 in 2025? Maybe. I think it is possible, but only with new QE and some tariff calm. Without that, I expect a deep to $70,000 or $55,000 first. I am betting on $55,000. Watch the Fed's June meeting and Trump's tariff tweets. That is your harvest plan.

A dip would clean the soil for a bigger bloom. Then we can talk about $200,000 and beyond.