My framework: cycles, liquidity, and wave patterns

After eight years in crypto, my analysis rests on cycles, trends, liquidity, and technical patterns, with Elliott Wave theory added for long-term context. Over more than a year of real-world testing, I checked my trading logs and the system's prediction accuracy has consistently topped 60%. That is not a guarantee, but it gives me a structured way to think about 2026. And before anything else: risk management, position sizing, and risk-reward ratios matter more than any single call. This is my personal take, not financial advice.

Bitcoin: a fourth wave, but with a wild card

From a traditional cycle perspective, Bitcoin has largely wrapped up its four-year cycle and is stepping into the early stages of a bear market. A classic sign is happening right now: altcoins are going wild. The total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin is breaking out of a falling wedge, and several altcoins are bouncing hard from multi-month bottoms. That kind of chaos is typical before a major trend shift.

Normally, this would mean a long, brutal crypto winter. But there is a huge wild card: the US AI bubble. That external force could seriously shorten the crypto winter. Bitcoin itself remains in a major fourth-wave correction on the charts. I know analysts argue about where wave one started, but it does not change the outcome. The next few months should be sideways consolidation, testing patience. Combined with my liquidity view, it will not be a bottomless crash. We could even revisit the 70k area before the real move. After mid-2026, after the summer, the picture gets much better.

Gold: a long-term uptrend with a needed pullback

Gold is in a unique phase. The world is transitioning between the old monetary system and the new one built on blockchain technology. Until that shift is complete, gold's core logic is to keep rising over the medium to long term, across five to ten years or more. That is why I still want exposure.

But the recent small pullback is only the beginning. After a nearly ten-year bull run, a deeper correction is healthy and it will not finish in two or three weeks. Central banks are still buying gold aggressively, so the drop should not be too extreme. I have two levels in mind for bottom fishing. The first is a zone where we saw a real fight a few months ago, around a 25% correction from the highs. The second, if something very bad happens, would be near a 50% correction.

My approach is to dollar-cost average starting at the first level and buy a lot more if we reach the second.

  • First level: around 25% pullback, likely heavy liquidity.
  • Second level: around 50% pullback, only in a bad scenario.
  • DCA is the way to avoid missing the next decade's gains.

US stocks: late cycle, but the party is not over

US stocks move with America's debt cycle. Right now we are in the late stages, with risk building up, but the key overheating signal has not fully flashed. That means the party is not over yet.

The AI bubble sits on top of this late-cycle backdrop. Every major shift, like the internet bubble, brings overinvestment and wild stories. That is exactly what sets up the US stock outlook for the next two years: a hype phase before the burst. As smart investors, we can and must surf that wave, but we need to know when to exit.

Liquidity: the fuel that will turn the market

Liquidity has been tough lately. The government shutdown drama and ongoing balance sheet reduction have made US funding extremely tight. The secured overnight financing rate versus reverse repurchase agreement spread spiked to COVID-era levels. That is why stocks and Bitcoin have been dropping, and why I am bearish on Bitcoin in the very short term.

But a turnaround is happening. With the shutdown likely ending soon, markets are rebounding on that expectation. Still, this is just stopping the bleed, not the start of a big bull run. The real timeline looks like this: first, the Fed halts quantitative tightening and maybe even restarts quantitative easing, normalizing liquidity, similar to October 2019. Second, around May next year, if Trump gains control of the Fed, that could be the real floodgates moment, with a scale that could replay March 2020.

AI bubble: three sell signals to watch

Since the AI trade can get wildly explosive before it pops, the key is knowing when to get cautious. I watch three signals.

When these signals hit, you do not have to sell everything right away. The idea is to enjoy the bubble party while keeping a finger on the sell button.

  • Sky-high mergers: big players snapping up companies at ridiculous prices.
  • Inflation spikes: the Fed tightens and liquidity gets pulled because inflation goes out of control.
  • Mindless surges: any stock with a hint of AI skyrockets and valuations stop making sense.

Putting it together for 2026

So where does that leave a $100,000 decision between Bitcoin, gold, and Nvidia-type tech stocks? For the next two years, I am cautiously optimistic, but only if you are patient through the current shakes and stay clearheaded when the bubble goes nuts. Bitcoin's fourth-wave consolidation could frustrate, but the second half of 2026 looks strong once liquidity turns. Gold's pullback is a long-term buying opportunity, and I plan to dollar-cost average into the levels I mentioned. US tech and AI can still rally hard, but I will watch the three sell signals and exit before the bubble pops. Do your own research, this is my personal take.