Bitcoin to $150K in May? Long, Short, or Wait? Key Risks to Know

Bitcoin just broke $100,000, Ethereum's Pectra upgrade went live without a hitch, and Arthur Hayes is calling for $150,000 this month. But the biggest threat to this rally may not be a technical failure, it could be the community's own infighting. Here is how I weigh the catalysts against the risks.

Ethereum's Pectra upgrade went live cleanly

On May 7, Ethereum activated the Pectra upgrade. I covered it in a previous video, and the short version is that Pectra is a major improvement: better scalability, a smoother user experience, and stronger staking functionality. Unlike some past upgrades, there was no fork, no critical bug, and the execution was flawless.

Pectra makes Layer 2 fees cheaper through blob-related tweaks, pushes account abstraction forward, and gives wallets more powerful features. The market felt it immediately. Within 24 hours, ETH rallied about 20% and reached the $2,000 level. The staking ratio ticked up, and Layer 2 tokens like OP and ARB each gained more than 15%. Liquid staking projects such as EigenLayer and ether.fi climbed 40% and 25% respectively.

That is a lot of good news at once. It feels like Ethereum is coming back, and I think the network's return is real. We will come back to what this means for the broader market.

Pectra went live on May 7 with no forks or critical bugs
ETH jumped about 20% to $2,000 within 24 hours
OP and ARB gained more than 15%, EigenLayer and ether.fi rose 40% and 25%

Bitcoin breaks $100,000 and altcoins wake up

Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 milestone has lit a fire under altcoins. Companies like Strategy and Metaplanet are still buying aggressively, almost as if they cannot get enough. Glassnode data shows that long-term holders have accumulated 250,000 BTC since March, and only 1.9 million BTC are currently in loss. The market structure looks stable.

Binance founder CZ recently said that in this cycle Bitcoin could reach $500,000 to $1 million. He pointed to ETF-driven institutional flows, nation-state buyers like El Salvador and Bhutan, and the broader pro-crypto policy shift in the United States. That is a bold range, but the underlying forces are real.

Bitcoin's break above $100k is supported by ETF inflows and corporate buying
Long-term holders accumulated 250,000 BTC since March
CZ sees Bitcoin potentially reaching $500k to $1 million this cycle

Two near-term catalysts: Bitcoin 2025 and a Trump dinner

Bitcoin 2025 runs from May 27 to 29 in Las Vegas, and the anticipation is intense. There are many events planned, including an attempt to set a Guinness World Record for a Bitcoin transaction. I will be there in person, and I am genuinely excited to find alpha and share it with you.

Before the conference, on May 22, there is a dinner with Trump and crypto executives. The timing is almost too perfect: it is just days before Bitcoin 2025, which makes it an ideal moment for major policy news. Everyone is excited, and it feels like the whole sector is aligning for a big move.

Bitcoin 2025 takes place May 27-29 in Las Vegas
A Guinness World Record attempt for a BTC transaction is planned
A Trump dinner with crypto executives on May 22 could bring policy news

The elephant in the room: Bitcoin's OP_RETURN fight

Here is the biggest internal problem I see: community infighting. A Bitcoin Core debate around OP_RETURN is splitting people badly. OP_RETURN allows users to embed small amounts of data inside transactions, like writing a note directly on the chain. Some developers want to remove its limits. Supporters argue that tools like Libre Relay already let people bypass restrictions, so removing limits would reduce network congestion from schemes like inscriptions and increase miner revenue after the halving.

I am on the opposite side, along with developers like Luke Dashjr. Removing OP_RETURN limits could open the door to spam, junk coins, and bloated nodes, pushing up fees for everyone. That would betray Bitcoin's core mission as sound global money. I said on X that Bitcoin's most important value is being global money, and for that reason the chain should stay as simple and efficient as possible. I favor limiting OP_RETURN. I also think forcing node operators into difficult choices is a freedom problem for a supposedly decentralized proposal.

This fight reminds me of Ethereum's past dramas, like the Beacon chain debates or the upgrade controversies I have covered before. These arguments scare away newcomers and give ammunition to critics. If we cannot even agree on code, how do we attract more people into the space? That is the real question hanging over the market.

Bitcoin Core's OP_RETURN proposal is dividing the community
Supporters want to remove limits to cut congestion and boost miner revenue
Opponents warn of spam, higher fees, and bloated nodes
I side with keeping OP_RETURN limited to protect Bitcoin's role as global money

Why I am still optimistic for the short term

Despite the infighting, I remain very optimistic about the market's near-term future. First, Pectra's success is a real catalyst. Cheaper Layer 2 networks are driving DeFi and NFT activity. ETH around $2,000 to $2,500 looks like a springboard. If Bitcoin holds above $100,000, models suggest ETH could climb much higher. Add RWA tokenization and spot ETH ETFs, and a move to $4,000 is not crazy.

People keep asking me if ETH is dead. It is absolutely not. It is waking up, and I have been saying that for weeks. Then we have Bitcoin's breakout above $100k, backed by ETF inflows and corporate buying. Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could hit $150,000 this month, and honestly, that feels possible.

New US crypto policy could add more fuel, and there may be big news at the end of the month. I will share it directly from Las Vegas. Macro tailwinds are strong too: the Fed has a 75% probability of a rate cut in July, US-China tariff talks show signs of easing, and stablecoin flows indicate fresh capital entering the market. Chris Burniske put it well when he said blockchain's flywheel of activity, capital, and price is unstoppable. We are in a good position, but unity is the key.

Pectra is boosting Ethereum's ecosystem and DeFi activity
Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin at $150k this month
Fed rate cut odds for July are 75%, and tariff talks are easing
Stablecoin inflows suggest new capital is arriving

The real risk: our own divisions, not the charts

If you are asking whether to go long, short, or wait, the risk I am watching is not a technical breakdown. It is the community tearing itself apart. Every cycle, these code wars scare off newcomers and give critics exactly what they want. That can dampen a rally even when the fundamentals are strong.

I am bullish, but I am watching the OP_RETURN debate closely. If it escalates, it could turn a healthy bull market into a messy one. The charts look great, the macro setup is favorable, but we cannot ignore the damage from internal conflict.

Community infighting is the biggest risk to the current rally
Code wars can scare away newcomers and embolden critics
A healthy bull market needs unity, not self-sabotage

Stay focused on the long game

I am optimistic about crypto's future. This is not investment advice, you need to do your own research, but I believe the path forward is bright if we stop the self-sabotage and build the decentralized future together.

Are you long or short? Tell me in the comments. And if you are going to Bitcoin 2025, reach out to me on Telegram. I would love to meet you there.