The Mood in Dallas: Bitcoin Nears $100K as the Old Guard Steps Back

I spent the second day at the George W. Bush Presidential Library in Dallas, and the atmosphere was unlike anything I have felt at a crypto event. Most of the booths were about mining, and the pavilion stage was packed. Bitcoin was hovering just under $100,000. People kept refreshing their phones, and the security team even promised free champagne if we crossed the line that day. We did not make it, but the energy was already historic.

Gary Gensler Resigns: What It Unlocks for Crypto

The biggest news hit early: Gary Gensler, the SEC chair who became crypto's main antagonist, officially resigned. He will leave office on January 20. Rumors had been circulating, but now it was confirmed. In his wake, Commissioner Peirce is expected to handle crypto-related matters until a permanent chair is appointed. Many people here expect her to recommend no action letters for outstanding investigations as soon as January or February. That would freeze much of the current litigation and give the industry a much needed breather.

I spoke with Nathan from the DeFi Education Fund, who had sued Gensler personally and in his professional capacity. He was glad Gensler stepped down peacefully. Nathan told me that for four years, entrepreneurs told him every week they wanted to launch crypto businesses in the US but were afraid of going to prison or being sued into oblivion. Innovation went elsewhere, and the US set a terrible precedent for the rest of the world. Now there is a four year window, but we cannot be lazy.

The End of Regulation by Enforcement

A CFTC commissioner opened her speech by saying regulation by enforcement was a bad idea. She even added that the SEC was worse than the CFTC. It sounded almost like an apology. She explained that the real problem is there are no laws that specifically regulate crypto. For years, the SEC and CFTC enforced rules that did not fit this market, especially the SEC. She said she is not in favor of adding new laws just for the sake of it, because this administration values efficiency. The message was clear: stop forcing old frameworks onto new technology, and start letting the market grow.

This shift away from aggressive enforcement aligns with what I heard in multiple conversations. The US wants to reclaim leadership, and it cannot do that while builders are afraid to build.

Bitcoin as a Digital Belt and Road

I had a fascinating conversation with Kyle Schneps from Foundry about national security. He framed Bitcoin as America's answer to China's Belt and Road Initiative. China spends decades building physical infrastructure in Africa, South America, and elsewhere to expand its influence. The United States cannot compete with that brick by brick. But Bitcoin is already the largest decentralized computer network in the world. By embracing it, the US can tap into a digital Belt and Road that is already running. The values behind Bitcoin mirror the principles of the US Constitution: individual freedom, property rights, and open participation. Every time someone in an autocratic or corrupt system uses Bitcoin, they are exposed to that American aligned network, a 24/7 advertisement for a different way of doing things.

That is why the idea of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve matters so much. President Trump talked about making sure all Bitcoin is made in America. A reserve would be both a strategic asset and a signal that the US intends to stay competitive with China in the digital age. Kyle called it a huge opportunity, and I agree.

What Comes Next: Stablecoins, Institutions, and a Less Volatile Market

Beyond the regulatory news, I walked away with three clear predictions for the next decade.

  • Stablecoins will become even more popular. They are the easiest on-ramp for everyday people and the best bridge between traditional finance and DeFi. The conversations at this conference confirmed that stablecoin adoption is set to accelerate.
  • Institutional money will keep flowing into Bitcoin. Banks are building the foundations for a mature market, and once they enter, volatility will decline. That means we will lose some of the wild upside, but we gain a more stable asset class.
  • Blockchain and AI will converge. The United States is pushing hard on artificial intelligence, and crypto is the natural settlement layer for machine economies. The AI narrative is just beginning.

The Tax Wildcard: Friendly Today, More Surveillance Tomorrow

Right now, the US government has every incentive to deregulate and remove friction. They want mass adoption, and they want it fast. That means taxes on crypto will probably stay light for the next few years. I also noticed that no one is talking about central bank digital currencies anymore, which is a relief.

But after mass adoption is complete, the incentive flips. The easiest way for any government to raise revenue is through capital gains tax. I expect that once enough people hold and transact in crypto, the US will increase capital gains taxes and ramp up tracking and surveillance. They will not miss that opportunity. So enjoy the friendly window, but keep an eye on the long game. The same government that onboards you today will want its cut tomorrow.

A Four Year Window, Not a Finish Line

Walking back to my hotel room that night, I kept thinking about the first 18 months of the new administration. In a democratic system where parties alternate power every four years, everything that matters will be decided in 2025. The first 100 days are critical. I hope the president signs an executive order on day one to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. That would be the strongest possible signal to the world.

Regulation will not disappear. If you want to move crypto from a decentralized wallet to a bank, you will still go through KYC and AML checks. Consumer protection and financial stability will remain priorities, but the approach will finally fit the technology. The next few years are a huge opportunity. The US is leading, and for the first time in a long time, the builders are smiling.