Why the 2024 election is a crypto election
Around 20 million Americans use crypto today, which is about 14% of the population. Almost half of American voters say they are considering adding crypto to their investment portfolio. Young Americans who want to build wealth quickly are pushing both crypto adoption and political attention. Politicians have clearly understood that ignoring crypto could be political suicide, and that is why this election matters so much for the market.
The impact of the United States is huge, even if you live in France, Belgium, Canada, or anywhere else. We saw it recently with the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. That event shook the political and financial world and showed how fast things can change and how quickly those changes can hit crypto markets.
Trump: from skeptic to crypto champion
Donald Trump has not always been pro crypto. At the beginning he called Bitcoin a scam. Now he has become an enthusiastic defender of digital currencies, and he even accepts crypto donations for his campaign. That is a real strategic move to attract crypto supporters and position himself as a pro innovation candidate.
In a recent interview, Trump repeated his support for crypto and said the United States must lead the crypto revolution. He also criticized the Biden administration's approach to regulation, accusing it of slowing down innovation and industry growth. Beyond words, Trump has made concrete promises: he wants to create a favorable regulatory environment for crypto companies in the US, explore blockchain technology more deeply, and support crypto mining on American soil, arguing that it can bring economic growth and jobs.
Biden and Harris: cautious, but not anti-crypto
Since I started making this video, Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and Kamala Harris took his place. But they come from the same administration and share the same broad approach, so everything I say about Biden applies to Harris too.
Biden has taken a more cautious position. He emphasizes regulation and consumer protection, and he worries about digital currencies being used for illegal activities or terrorism, as well as the environmental impact of mining. Some of those environmental concerns have already been debunked. Interestingly, Biden also followed Trump and started accepting crypto donations for his campaign, which shows he is not completely anti crypto. His administration has consulted many industry experts, and Anita Dunn, a senior adviser, recently met with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and founders of DeFi projects. That tells me there is a real willingness to learn and engage with the industry.
A Trump win would probably bring more heat
If Trump wins, we can expect pro crypto policies. That would likely lead to overall market growth and more innovation, because companies and investors would feel more confident about launching projects. Memecoins in particular could explode. These coins rely on viral marketing and strong communities, and a more relaxed regulatory environment could help them thrive, or become even more volatile.
We already saw how political memecoins react to events. The day of the assassination attempt on Trump, the market for political memecoins jumped more than 50%. That shows the speculative nature of these tokens and how fast things move in this space. There were also rumors about Barron Trump being involved in crypto, but nothing has been confirmed. And the DJT token, despite the buzz, is not associated with Trump or his family as far as we know. It still caused a lot of madness.
A Biden win would mean slower, more stable growth
A Biden victory would more likely lead to a cautious approach with a focus on rules and consumer protection. That does not mean crypto would stop growing. The industry would adapt to a new regulatory framework, and growth would probably be slower but more stable. Over time, that could produce a more mature and less chaotic market, which is not a bad outcome.
The cryptos I am watching under each scenario
Under a Trump administration, the theme is innovation and deregulation. That tends to favor the most decentralized and established projects. Under Biden or Harris, the theme shifts toward compliance, security, and consumer protection, so projects that put KYC and regulatory clarity first should do better.
- Trump scenario: Bitcoin as the crypto leader could see a value increase, because investors look for an established and widely accepted digital asset. Ethereum with its smart contracts is also well placed to benefit, and when the two leaders move, the whole market often follows.
- Biden scenario: USDC, as a dollar backed stablecoin, could see more adoption and market share, although its price will not go up because it is pegged to the dollar. Cardano, with its focus on academic research and compliance, could be attractive even if its CEO is not very pro Biden. Chainlink, the decentralized oracle network, could also see more demand as projects try to meet regulatory requirements.
What to watch next
On July 27, Trump is scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin Conference 2024 in Nashville. That could give us more details about how he sees the future of crypto, and we might get a reaction from Biden's camp afterward. Staying informed on candidate statements is crucial for making clearer investment decisions.
Conclusion: stay prepared, not panicked
If you like explosiveness, a Trump win could be very exciting for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins with a strong narrative. A Biden win would probably feel soft by comparison. But in every case, I believe the crypto market will keep growing. Events like this are either catalysts or temporary slowdowns. If you are a long term holder, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum and ignoring short term volatility is a valid strategy. If you want to trade the volatility, a Trump win could be fun.
To paraphrase Douglas Adams: do not panic. The future of crypto is uncertain, but with good information and a bit of patience, we will get through this election cycle stronger. Neither side is fundamentally anti crypto, and that alone is already positive for the market.